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Cable en el que el Gobierno argentino promete a los banqueros que no vigilará si se conceden o no los préstamos

El embajador estadounidense relata confidencias que le hacen los grandes banqueros argentinos

ID:192180
Date:2009-02-13 19:43:00
Origin:09BUENOSAIRES163
Source:Embassy Buenos Aires
Classification:CONFIDENTIAL
Dunno:
Destination:VZCZCXYZ0001
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #0163/01 0441943
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 131943Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3054
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, EINV, EAGR, AR
SUBJECT: TOP ARGENTINE BANKER SEES CHALLENGES AHEAD

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

1. (C) Ambassador lunched February 11 with Jorge Brito,
President of Argentina's Banco Macro and also President of
the Association of Argentine-owned private banks (ADEBA).
Though Brito has good relations with the Argentine
government, in private he is frank in his criticisms. Brito
offered several insights, which follow below.

2. (C) IMF: The Argentine government could be interested in
re-engaging with the IMF if the IMF reforms as a result of
the financial crisis and subsequent reform efforts (such as
the G-20). The Kirchners are not deeply ideological on this,
he said, but ultimately pragmatic: if they need money and
they can get it from the IMF with lessened conditionality
(not without any), they would consider finding a way to
reengage. Brito noted that the government could well need
additional funds in the coming years, and that people are
quietly thinking through what might be needed to bring about
a new relation with the IMF.

3. (SBU) Social Pact and the "Campo": President Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) is thinking of trying to launch a
new meeting of the social and economic council bringing
together business, financial, labor, and agricultural groups
to discuss how to cope with the global economic crisis. If
this is a back door way to re-engage with the farm sector, it
could be a very important initiative. The biggest domestic
challenge facing the government is how to deal with the
agricultural sector and to avoid a new conflict.

4. (SBU) Argentine Economy: In Brito's view, the economy
should be able to get through this year with positive growth,
between 0 and 2%, but the social climate, agricultural trade,
and trade with Brazil will be vital.

5. (SBU) Soy prices and production will be key for the
performance of the Argentine economy this year. If prices
and production are good, then the economy overall will do
fine. The other big factor is the exchange rate with Brazil
and the effects on trade. This, the banker argued, is more
important that the dollar-peso exchange rate for effects on
the real economy. The third big factor for the economy this
year is wage negotiations, which begin in March. If these do
not result in inordinate salary increases, it will be very
positive for the economy.

6. (C) The overall inflation rate is slowing a bit, but what
is really important is the inflation rate for blue-collar
workers. They form the base of the government's support and,
of course, the prices affecting them are what really motivate
labor unions in wage negotiations.

7. (C) To date, the government's various programs to spur
consumption have had little or no real effect. Most of the
President's initiatives announced over the last two months
are not functioning, and the President is very upset with her
ministers because of this.

8. (C) The government's implementing regulations for the new
capital repatriation law seem adequate in terms of providing
controls to limit the use of this law to launder money.
However, he noted that the law is not likely to bring much
capital back to the country in the short term. In a couple
of years, if things are stable, the new law could serve as a
channel for significant capital inflow. But, in general,
Argentines with capital will not send it back unless they see
a stable investment climate.

9. (C) Bio note: Jorge Brito was born in 1952 and graduated
from the Universidad Catolica Argentina, and worked for many
different financial institutions, including Citicorp, before
taking over Banco Macro. He is considered by many to be a
great Argentine success story. He took a small financing
company, Compania Financiera Macro, and turned it into Banco
Macro, one of Argentina's most powerful private banks. He
did this through numerous acquisitions, particularly during
the mid- to late-1990s, when it started buying up recently
privatized provincial banks, and also during the high-risk
times following the 2001-02 financial crisis and sovereign
debt default. With these acquisitions, Macro has over 5,000
employees and 423 branches, and is listed on the New York
Stock Exchange as Grupo Macro. His detractors allege that
his success is mostly due to his close links with powerful
politicians and businessmen. He was reportedly one of the
main contributors to the Menem administration, but has also
been able to maintain close ties to the Kirchners. In fact,
he is thought by some to be the closest advisor to the
Kirchners from the Argentine financial sector. This may in
part be because, as President of ADEBA, he has studiously
pursued a strategy of never criticizing the government in
public, and only working behind the scenes to encourage more
financial sector-friendly policies. Brito has six children,
four sons and two daughters. Four of them work various
positions in his bank.
WAYNE
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