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01/12/2010
| ID: | 247279 |
| Date: | 2010-02-04 16:14:00 |
| Origin: | 10BUENOSAIRES71 |
| Source: | Embassy Buenos Aires |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Dunno: | |
| Destination: | VZCZCXYZ0006 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHBU #0071/01 0391433 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O R 041614Z FEB 10 (CCY ADX1C30B8 ICTOQ0621-623) FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0436 INFO MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0027 RUMIESS/SOUTHCOM IESS MIAMI FL |
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000071 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - ADDED AMEMBASSY LONDON AS ADDITIONAL ADDRESSEE. SIPDIS DEPT OF ENERGY FOR MANOLIS PRIONIOTAKIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/04 TAGS: ECON, EFIN, PREL, PGOV, ENRG, AR SUBJECT: Argentina: Saber Rattling over Oil Exploration in the Falklands CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Kelly, DCM; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) Summary 1. (C) This is the first in a series of cables which will address the Argentine reaction to hydrocarbons-related activities in the Falklands/Malvinas islands. 2. (C) The GoA is reportedly hardening its policy on the Falkland/Malvinas Islands in response to accelerating oil exploration efforts under British authority that lack Argentine participation or consent. According to local press reports, the Foreign Ministry has created a plan to press Argentina's historic claim to the islands which involves expressing displeasure to the UK, to any companies involved, and to the governments of the companies' home countries. This could involve the USG, since an American supplier is sending a drilling rig to the islands. These steps follow a 2007 resolution which threatens to cut off the Argentine operations of any oil company that operates in the Falklands without GoA permission. British diplomats in Argentina are not sure how far the GoA will take these threats, and do not rule out an "irrational" response. At present, no U.S. energy company operating in Argentina appears to be considering activity in the Falklands. End Summary. Keep Your Oil Equipment Away from Our Islands 3. (SBU) Argentine press reports on January 27 state that the Argentine Foreign Ministry (MFA) has developed a plan to resist oil exploration in the Falklands/Malvinas islands located to the east of southern Argentina, a territory claimed by the Argentines and the British, but controlled by the British. British firm Desire Petroleum is reportedly moving a drilling rig to the area to drill exploratory wells. The GoA plans to assert that "any hydrocarbons operation in the Malvinas area linked to the UK is 'illegal' because, by authorizing it, the UK government is assuming competency in areas of the continental shelf which are subject to Argentine jurisdiction and sovereignty." The GoA has reportedly planned three courses of action: a formal protest to the UK; sending "notes of discouragement" to each company involved in such activities, advising them that their actions are "illegal" and they could therefore face legal sanctions; and, in the case where companies are not British, sending protest notes to the corresponding government(s) signaling GoA concern over the "illegal" activities and noting possible sanctions. The USG could receive a note under the third category because the U.S. firm Diamond Drilling owns a drilling rig en route to the islands (and expected to be in place by mid-February). 4. (SBU) The above GoA policy would be consistent with Energy Secretariat Resolution 407 issued in 2007, which threatens to terminate the Argentine activities (including the cancellation of all energy concessions) of any company that operates in the Falklands area without express GoA permission. Energy analyst Daniel Gerold sees little chance of GoA sanctions against companies while the process remains in the exploration stage. However, in the event of a significant hydrocarbons discovery (either petroleum or natural gas, which he believes is more likely), Gerold foresees the GoA making it "a major issue," as more companies become involved in the extraction process -- and as the GoA perceives it is missing out on a significant revenue stream. What Next? Brits Concerned 5. (C) Argentina launched the first diplomatic shot across the British bow on February 2; British diplomats in Argentina confirmed to EconOff that the GoA delivered a formal protest to their ChargC) that afternoon. UK political Officers Lynda St Cooke and Oliver Moss (the latter a former Shell Oil employee) previously told EconOff January 28 that, while such a protest was expected and routine (they receive numerous Falklands-related communications from the GoA each year), they were still concerned over where GoA actions might lead. Their concern is over the shape of future sanctions on companies as well as threats and protests against energy companies operating in the Falklands by NGOs, including environmental activists. 6. (C) On possible sanctions, St Cooke believes that the GoA will seek to "make an example" of a company if possible, and she wondered what would happen if the first company to cross the "line in the sand" were one with significant activities in Argentina. She cited Schlumberger as an example of a company which could provide services for oil extraction in the Falklands, given its extensive global operations, including within Argentina. She noted that stopping its Argentine operations would be very detrimental to Argentine hydrocarbons production. While pursuing such an action would be "irrational" for the GoA, she said, "We can't rule it out." She added that this is a very one-sided issue in Argentina. Since there are virtually no advocates for relinquishing Argentina's claim to the islands, which is taught as sacred writ to Argentine children beginning in elementary school, there could be significant political pressure on the GoA to take action in case of an oil discovery. Gerold agreed and suggested that, following a significant hydrocarbon find, the GoA would quickly seek to begin operations in its (undisputed) Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as close as possible to the location of the find. 7. (SBU) U.S. companies currently operating in Argentina have not indicated an interest to participate in current exploration activities near the Falklands; Randy Smith, ExxonMobil's Public and Government Affairs Manager, told Econoff January 29 that his company is not interested.. Comment 8. (C) Although the budget-strapped Argentine military is ill-prepared for any course of action involving projection of power, the GoA would likely feel compelled by a significant hydrocarbon find to press Argentina's historic claims by any other possible means. A strategy of tough talk, complaints in international fora, and protest letters is likely, with economic sanctions against participating companies possible, even if they might damage Argentina's own hydrocarbons output. MARTINEZ | |
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