Cable sobre la reunión de EE UU y China acerca de la desnuclearización de Corea del Norte

Pekín propone una renegociación conjunta para abordar el desarme nuclear de Pyongyang

29 nov 2010 - 22:01CET

ID:	212487
Date:	2009-06-17 06:45:00
Origin:	09BEIJING1634
Source:	Embassy Beijing
Classification:	CONFIDENTIAL
Dunno:
Destination:	VZCZCXRO0731 OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC DE RUEHBJ #1634/01 1680645 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 170645Z JUN 09 FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4582 INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RHMFISS/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001634 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/K E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2034 TAGS: PREL, MARR, PGOV, CH, KN, KS, J SUBJECT: CDA AND MFA ASIAN AFFAIRS ON DPRK Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i., Dan Piccuta. Reasons 1.4 (b/d ). Summary 1. (C) In a June 16 luncheon in honor of visiting Hong Kong CG Joe Donovan hosted by the Charge, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that China liked a U.S. proposal described by Ambassador Bosworth here on June 5 to put all issues related to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula into a package for negotiation. XXXXXXXXXXXX maintained that the United States holds the key to bringing the DPRK back to the negotiation table and suggested that succession concerns in North Korea might be causing Kim Jong-il to escalate tensions with the United States so that his successor, perhaps Kim Jong-un, could then step in to ease pressure. XXXXXXXXXXXX acknowledged that China experts believe the DPRK has been processing highly enriched uranium but asserted that the program was only in an initial phase. XXXXXXXXXXXX suggested that ROK envoy to the Six-Party Talks had not offered any new ideas during his June 9 visit to Beijing and that Japan's focus on the abductee issue continued to cause concerns at the MFA. End Summary. Chinese Protests to DPRK Have Had No Effect ------------------------------------------- 2. (C) In a June 16 luncheon hosted by the Charge, XXXXXXXXXXXX made clear that the PRC viewed recent provocative actions by the DPRK as having gone too far. He assured the Charge that Chinese officials had expressed Chinese displeasure to North Korean counterparts and had pressed the DPRK to return to the negotiation table. Unfortunately, XXXXXXXXXXXX added, those protests had had "no effect." "The only country that can make progress with the North Koreans is the United States," he maintained. XXXXXXXXXXXX said that, although China had assured North Korean leaders that the United States was ready to have bilateral talks with them, the North Koreans had insisted that any message from the United States to the DPRK should be delivered directly, not through China. XXXXXXXXXXXX took this as further evidence that only by having direct talks with the United States would North Korea return to the Six-Party Talks. China Likes a Package Approach ------------------------------ 3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX told the Charge that China viewed favorably the USG proposal of putting all facets of a possible Korean Peninsula denuclearization agreement into one package. XXXXXXXXXXXX characterized Chinese and U.S. core interests in a nuclear free Korean Peninsula as "shared." He reminded his hosts that Punggye, the site of the DPRK nuclear test, was near the Chinese border and that any accident there could have had dire consequences for Northeast China. XXXXXXXXXXXX insisted that China was as concerned as the United States about proliferation from North Korea. The only difference in the China and U.S. positions, XXXXXXXXXXXX maintained, was "the United States was the key while China was only in a position to apply a little oil to the lock." Building Trust -------------- 4. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX cautioned that building trust between the DPRK and the United States would be difficult. In North Korea's view, XXXXXXXXXXXX explained, the destruction of its nuclear capability was an irreversible step while decisions by the United States could be easily reversed. When CGs Donovan and Goldberg both pointed out that trust was a two-way street and that North Korea had not evinced a great deal of it, XXXXXXXXXXXX was evasive. When pressed whether he believed the DPRK had been reprocessing highly enriched uranium (HEU), XXXXXXXXXXXX said yes, adding that Chinese experts believed the enrichment was only in its initial phases and that any DPRK HEU program would not be "very useful." Domestic Concerns in North Korea Influence Talks --------------------------------------------- --- 5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX suggested that domestic politics in North Korea were in a large way responsible for Pyongyang's recent actions. He was dismissive of DPRK justifications for the nuclear test as a response to the UN Security Council BEIJING 00001634 002 OF 002 Presidential Statement critical of North Korea's April 5 Taepo-Dong 2 launch. "Kim Jong-il was obviously planning the nuclear test at the same time as the missile launch so his justification for the test makes no sense," XXXXXXXXXXXX said. XXXXXXXXXXXX opined that the rapid pace of provocative actions in North Korea was due to Kim Jong-il's declining health and might be part of a gambit under which Kim Jong-il would escalate tensions with the United States so that his successor, presumably Kim Jong-un, could then step in and ease those tensions. 6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX, told the Charge that he kept abreast of Western media reports about North Korea. XXXXXXXXXXXX cautioned that U.S. experts should not assume North Korea would implode after Kim Jong-il's death. He said that PRC analysts concluded that the regime would still function normally and discounted strongly any suggestion that the system would collapse once Kim Jong-il disappeared. ROK has no new ideas - Japan can only scuttle talks --------------------------------------------- ------ 7. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that ROK Six-Party Talks envoy Wi Sung-lac had met with VFM Wu Dawei on June 9 but had offered nothing new. "The South Koreans have plenty of ideas, but we've heard them all before," he complained, adding that the ROK government was too close to the situation in North Korea to be objective. Turning to Japan, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Japan's obsession with the abductee issue reminded him of a Chinese expression for an individual who was too weak to make something work, yet strong enough to destroy it. Participants ------------- Charge Dan Piccuta Joe Donovan, U.S. Consul General Hong Kong Robert Goldberg, Consul General Guangzhou Mark Lambert, Regional Unit Chief Jim Brown, interpreter XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXX PICCUTA