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Cable sobre la opinión de la diplomacia china acerca de que los militares gobiernen Corea del Norte

Un diplomático chino destinado en un país de Asia Central señala que entre los objetivos de Pekín en Corea del Norte están asegurar el respeto a los compromisos de no proliferación nuclear y evitar que Kim Jong-il se "vuelva loco".

ID:210695
Date:2009-06-08 10:08:00
Origin:09ASTANA982
Source:Embassy Astana
Classification:CONFIDENTIAL
Dunno:09ASTANA678
Destination:VZCZCXRO2943
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RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
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RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1719
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 0690
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFAAA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1201
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 1117
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASTANA 000982

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/A, EUR/CARC, EAP/CM, EAP/K, EEB/ESC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2029
TAGS: PREL, ECON, EPET, AF, GG, RS, IR, KN, ZK, KZ
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: CHINESE AMBASSADOR COMMENTS ON KEY FOREIGN
POLICY ISSUES

REF: ASTANA 0678

Classified By: Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland, 1.4 (b), (d)

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 5, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Guoping
hosted the Ambassador for dinner at the restaurant on the 23rd floor
of a striking new hotel built in Astana and owned by the Chinese
National Petroleum Company. During a fascinating, wide-ranging,
three-hour tour d'horizon, the Chinese Ambassador discussed his
government's policy -- and occasionally made personal comments -- on
human rights, smart power, President Obama, Afghanistan's
reconstruction, Russia's policy in Central Asia, Georgian President
Saakashvili, Iran's upcoming presidential elections, North Korea's
nuclear tests, Central Asia's energy resources, the Manas air base,
and the proposed international nuclear fuel bank. The Chinese
Ambassador clearly enjoyed the free and easy, open-ended conversation
and invited the Ambassador to meet again, at the restaurant, in the
near future. Guoping was joined by an unidentified policy advisor
and an interpreter, to whom he addressed his remarks in soft whispers
throughout the evening. END SUMMARY.

CHINA'S MFA "SCARED" BY PELOSI'S VISIT

2. (SBU) Guoping was relaxed, wearing short sleeves and no jacket,
and clearly eager to engage and entertain his American guests. He
began the evening by referring to the recent visit to Beijing of
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Without openly acknowledging or
discussing the twentieth anniversary of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen
Square protests, Guoping said the government was prepared, and also
fearful, for the Speaker to raise human rights and democracy issues
during her visit. "She had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)
scared to death on the eve of her visit," Guoping said,
half-jokingly.

PRAISE FOR SMART POWER

3. (SBU) Without prompting, Guoping praised President Obama's
leadership style and approach to foreign affairs. He singled out the
President's "effective management" of the financial crisis, for
example, calling his decisions to stimulate the U.S. economy "bold
and courageous." He called the President's June 4 speech in Cairo -
which Guoping was able to download in Mandarin from the Department's
website - "a milestone for the use of smart power." Guoping said the
President's willingness to employ both military and cultural assets
would prove to be a "very effective" approach to foreign affairs. He
observed that statesmen require both in order to achieve their policy
objectives and said the Administration's use of "smart power is a
very good idea."

IRANIAN ELECTIONS

4. (SBU) Guoping perceptively connected the Cairo speech to upcoming
elections in Iran. "This speech is very timely," he said. "I
predict that it will influence Iran's presidential elections, and
will be particularly beneficial for reformers in Iran." He said that
President Obama has already played a positive role in rebuilding U.S.
relations with Iran and again stressed the importance of the upcoming
elections. "The reformists have a chance," he said. Guoping
suggested that it would be impossible for Iran to ignore President
Obama's overtures for long. "They cannot remain in the background of
these global changes in foreign policy. If they do, they will become
even more isolated than they already are. And ultimately, if Iran
doesn't respond, President Obama will have to change his policy.
Iran might be the last country standing for extremism in the Muslim
world," he said.

FOCUS ON THE TALIBAN

5. (SBU) About Afghanistan, Guoping said the Taliban is the real
enemy of the United States and the "basis for terrorism in South
Asia." He argued that the United States must first "eradicate the
Taliban in order to defeat terror in Iraq" and said the
Administration's emphasis on Afghanistan was a shrewd policy. "You
have enlisted the help of all governments in the region to assist

ASTANA 00000982 002 OF 004


with the rebuilding of Afghanistan, saying that to do so is to play a
part in the war against terrorism. No one is able to say openly that
they do not want to combat terrorism, so you have made it very
difficult to refuse to help."

NORTHERN DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

6. (C) In particular, Guoping said that the Northern Distribution
Network to transport non-lethal supplies to U.S. troops in
Afghanistan has enabled many countries to participate in
Afghanistan's reconstruction. He said that the Chinese government is
aware of the U.S. government's request to transit non-lethal supplies
via China and said "we are actively researching this suggestion. In
essence, it would mean that the People's Republic of China would be
supporting a NATO military operation, which would be an interesting
development." Guoping confided that China's MFA and its Ministry of
Defense have different opinions on the subject, although he said he
expected a decision soon. "My own personal opinion," he said, "is
that we will do the right thing and cooperate with NATO and the U.S.
government in Afghanistan." Guoping said this would be an
appropriate issue to raise in the context of the President's visit to
Beijing in July.

RUSSIA'S POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA

7. (C) Guoping said that Russia is experiencing "severe difficulty"
now because of the global financial crisis. He suggested that the
government of Russia is eager to improve relations with the United
States now because Moscow is concerned that the economic downturn
will begin to affect the political stability of the country, "even
the stability of the Kremlin." Guoping said that Russia does not
want or need any foreign policy problems right now; "they need to
focus on their domestic, economic affairs." Guoping also said that
Russia would like more support from the United States for its
insistence on a privileged sphere of influence in Central Asia, in
exchange for greater cooperation in Afghanistan. "Russia is
convinced that they must dominate Central Asia and the Caucasus.
They believe they have vital, strategic, historical interests in the
region," Guoping said. When pressed by the Ambassador to express his
own opinion, Guoping said, "I personally do not agree that Russia
should be granted a special sphere of influence in the region, but
that is their view."

ON GEORGIA

8. (C) On Georgia, Guoping said he expects Russia to use military
force to overthrow Georgian President Saakashvili. He did not
elaborate or offer any specifics, but merely observed that Russia has
already established military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and
is likely to remain there for the foreseeable future. Guoping worked
in Georgia for four years and understands well the history and
culture of its people. He observed that South Ossetia has strong
cultural ties to Russia, but said it is likely that the Ossetians
will ultimately press for greater independence from Russian
influence.

9. (C) In unusually blunt language, Guoping said Saakashvili is "not
a mature statesman. He overreacted to Russian provocations and gave
Russia the opportunity to take Abkhazia and South Ossetia." Guoping
suggested that Secretary Rice's July 2008 visit to Georgia before the
war in August 2008, might have indirectly encouraged Saakashvili to
take military action. He said his understanding was that Saakashvili
briefed Secretary Rice on his plans to mobilize Georgian armed forces
and when she did not directly object, Saakashvili mistook that as a
sign of U.S. support. Guoping said, "Clearly, Russia baited and
cheated Georgia. But Saakashvili was impressed with his earlier
success in Batumi (Adjara) and he thought he could involve the United
States in the war." Guoping said he expects former Parliament
Speaker Nino Burjanadze to become Georgia's next president. "She is
much more mature than Saakashvili. He won't stay long," he said.

NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS, DOMESTIC POLITICS

10. (C) Guoping seemed genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent

ASTANA 00000982 003 OF 004


nuclear missile tests. "We need to solve this problem. It is very
troublesome," he said, calling Korea's nuclear activity a "threat to
the whole world's security." China opposes North Korea's nuclear
testing and is working to achieve peace and stability on the Korean
peninsula, according to Guoping. When asked about the reunification
of Korea, Guoping said China hopes for peaceful reunification in the
long-term, but he expects the two countries to remain separate in the
short-term. Guoping said the domestic political situation in North
Korea is "very complex" and suggested that Kim Jong-il's reported
decision to anoint his youngest son as his successor was driven more
by Kim's deteriorating health than any carefully planned strategy.
"They had no time to plan for this," he said. Guoping said the
"military really governs" North Korea and controls domestic politics
and foreign policy. He suggested that Kim Jong-il's announcement was
designed to send a message to the military and the great powers that
he is really in charge and in control. Guoping said China's
objectives in North Korea were to ensure they honor their commitments
on nonproliferation, maintain stability, and "don't drive [Kim
Jong-il] mad."

CENTRAL ASIAN ENERGY

11. (SBU) Turning to a discussion of energy resources and energy
security in Central Asia, Guoping said that Russia owns and controls
most of Central Asia's pipelines, "but it cannot prevent the ultimate
diversification of export routes." He said that Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are close to Russia, but they
nevertheless understand that they must seek and develop alternatives.
He predicted that they will soon "break the Russian monopoly" on the
export of hydrocarbons from the region and said the oil and gas
pipelines to China now under construction will be "very important" in
that regard. Guoping said that Kazakhstan's oil pipeline from Atasu
to Alashankou would be completed in July and will initially carry
200,000 barrels per day (bbl/d), but will soon be expanded to 400,000
bbl/d. He said China would encourage Western oil companies to ship
their production eastward. He was aware of plans to ship Kazakhstani
oil across the Caspian Sea by tanker and said China had no objections
to the project, which they considered "strictly commercial." When
asked about China's recent $10 billion loan to Kazakhstan, Guoping
confirmed that $5 billion was earmarked for investments in the energy
sector, including the purchase of 50% of MangistauMunaiGas, while the
remaining $5 billion would be delivered to the Development Bank of
Kazakhstan as a "soft loan that the government would be free to use
as it likes."

POTENTIAL PARTNERSHIP WITH U.S. OIL COMPANIES

12. (SBU) Guoping said China sees "great potential for an energy
partnership with U.S. companies in Central Asia," including the
development of onshore resources in Turkmenistan. He said that the
Chinese MFA is very interested in pursuing these opportunities and
suggested that this would be worth including in the China-U.S.
Strategic Economic Dialogue. "This is very reasonable," he said,
adding, "Our government would actively support such a proposal." The
Ambassador noted that Chevron is already working with Chinese
companies in western China.

ON NAZARBAYEV

13. (SBU) Commenting on President Nazarbayev, Guoping called him a
"wise and mature statesman," who has presided over a period of
remarkable stability and economic growth. He praised President
Nazarbayev's foreign policy skills and added that China's MFA has
"great respect" for President Nazarbayev and holds him in high
regard.

MANAS AIR BASE

14. (C) Referring to the Manas air base, Guoping said that the
government of Kyrgyzstan has tried to show similar sophistication in
balancing the interests of the great powers in the neighborhood, but
has been much less successful. He said that according to his
information, the United States is prepared to pay an additional $50
million a year to the government of Kyrgyzstan "to make them think

ASTANA 00000982 004 OF 004


about" keeping the base open. He said he has seen a subtle shift in
U.S. policy in the region, adding, "You've also made important
progress in Uzbekistan. We ourselves have noticed a change in
Uzbekistan's foreign policy over the last year, especially toward
Russia."

NUCLEAR FUEL BANK

15. (C) Guoping did not appear to be well briefed on the subject of
the IAEA-administered international nuclear fuel bank proposed by the
Nuclear Threat Initiative. He was aware of Russia's earlier proposal
to host a fuel bank, but he seemed surprised when told that
Kazakhstan has announced its intention to host an IAEA-administered
fuel bank on its territory. Indeed, he went so far as to question
the accuracy of the Ambassador's information that Iranian President
Ahmadinejad supported Kazakhstan's proposal during his state visit to
Astana in April. "We are still conducting research on this idea,"
Guoping said, subtly indicating his unwillingness - or inability - to
discuss the subject further.

16. (C) COMMENT: In the past six months, the Ambassador and Guoping
have established a relaxed, open, and even frank relationship.
Guoping prefers to meet the Ambassador in the U.S. Embassy or in a
public place, having explained previously that he believes his own
Embassy's temporary quarters are thoroughly bugged -- by whom, he
doesn't say. CNPC built the high-rise, pagoda-roofed Beijing hotel
as a gift to Astana. The marble lobby is impressive, if a bit too
totalitarian-austere. The hotel was supposed to have opened in
January, and we are not convinced that it is now fully open for
business. We were the only guests in the restaurant, although an
untouched full buffet was laid out. The revolving restaurant
provides a spectacular panorama of Astana, and the empty steppe
beyond, but it seems to revolve at varying speeds and sometimes can
be a bit too fast on a full stomach and after a few glasses of wine.
END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND
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